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Introduction

In 1984, George Orwell described a world in which information was scarce, knowledge was denied and propaganda was substituted for both. In the 21st century, the risk is the same but the process is different: denying citizens knowledge by inundating them with "megabytes, gigabytes and terabytes" of undigested information.

• "The human psychology is the most unique and important factor driving the financial markets"
  --Gerarld M. Loes
• "As Individuals, we are all relatively sensible and reasonable. As members of a group, we become immediately stupid"
  --Friedrich Schiller
• "Stock markets are driven by individuals, their open or hidden agendas... I do not trust in rational behaviour!"
  --Anonymous

2008: Icebergs Ahead!

February 2008: A world that is sustained by American consumer spending which is in turn 1/4 sustained by a property bubble could result in 20 million people loosing their homes.

Financial Markets, 2015

An intelligent galaxy of new specialist advisory, investment management, algorithmic software and consulting firms networked with the universe of powerful transaction facilitation exchanges. Banks now exist only as giant regulated pools of capital.

• Why do we think of putting money down on sports outcomes as betting, while putting money on financial outcomes as investing?
  Sean Park, head of Digital Markets at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein says: "Investing or trading involves a careful and analytical approach to decision making and risk taking. Betting or gambling involves a purely impulsive or emotional speculation. The irony is that many ordinary people are much more informed about sports or politics or the weather than macro-economic trends or the financial prospects of this or that company, and yet are encouraged by the prevailing culture and legislation to risk their savings investing in the latter through bonds or stocks while being chastised and in many cases legally prohibited from seeking to profit from their detailed knowledge of particular sporting or political outcomes."
• The barriers to entry in financial services are very high: highly regulated, powerful (financially and politically) incumbents, extremely high customer inertia and a natural embedded conservatism given that we are dealing with people's money.
  So if I am an eBay or an Amazon or Google or the next great WebCo, it is natural that I aim my innovation at softer targets like media or retailing (or even sports betting!) first. Main Street before Wall Street. But while this entry barrier is very high, one day it too will be breached. It may be a few years away or more, but it is ultimately inevitable.
• The Interent will not only commoditize existing financial markets even further, but will give rise to markets for everything. Anywhere that information is fluid, there can be a market: sports betting, virtual assets, sports trading hedge funds...
• Sean Park 2015 Scenario
  9MB Video, very interesting and very creative. Sean Park states his own opinions, and not the ones of the companies he represents.

The Gambler's fallacy and the illusion of control

• Social psychologists find that the principles of social perception can help explain why people are so easily seduced into gambling, a nonrational economic activity. From a motivational perspective, gambling is viewed as a symptom of wishful thinking, or self-deception (Hayano, 1988). Most people are unrealistically optimistic about the future and tend to exaggerate the amount of control they have over uncontrollable life events. People falsely assume that any sequence of events if produced by a truly random process, should appear representative of the expected long-term outcome. Since a large number of coin flips will produce an average of 50 percent heads and 50 percent tails, people erroneously assume that this ratio will emerge even in a small sample of flips. Reflecting this assumption, people often exhibit what is known as the gambler's fallacy, the belief that random processes are self-correcting, that temporary deviations in one direction are to be matched by subsequent deviation in the opposite direction. It's ironic that just as gamblers assume that the law of averages implies self-correction for random events, they make the opposite but also incorrect assumption for events determined by skill. The saying "When you're hot, you're hot" illustrates that in tasks involving skill rather than luck, people often expect continuity from one outcome to the next. At the professional level, the chance of hitting a basket is no greater after previous hits than after previous misses. Randomly generated events produce the same number of hot and cold streaks as a basketball player's record (Thomas Gilovich et al., 1985). People usually take credit for success and explain away failure. Just as a basketball player is no more likely to sink a basket after four hits than after four misses, investors are no more likely to succeed after a string of wins than after a string of losses. Since many traders have access to the same information, and since prices can change on a moment's notice, movements in the market cannot be predicted with reliability. The only way to guarantee profit is to use confidential information, an illegal activity.
• Predictions of the future on Wall Street, as in Las Vegas, are influenced by social psychological factors. When people own shares of a stock that is climbing, they often sell too early so they can enjoy the quick pleasure of making a profit. This tendency is easy to understand. But when people own stock that is falling, they often wait too long before selling in the hope that they might avoid a financial loss.
  Research on social comparison and conformity has shown that when people feel they cannot clearly and concretely measure their own opinion, they turn to others for information. This is why investors are more influenced by news and stock market tips during periods of rising or falling prices than during periods of relative stability (Stanley Schachter et al., 1985). Price movements in the stock market are triggered not by objective economic information but by other price movements in the market. The financial news media often seize on current events for an explanation. Whether these attributions are correct or incorrect is irrelevant. Either way, they can turn an initial dip in the market into a full-fledged crash.

The Greater Sucker Theory of Investing

• The kind of "investing" that goes on during bull markets like the one we saw in the late 1990s and like we are still seeing now. Faux traders, calling themselves "investors," buy shares of media darlings such as Enron, Ciena, WorldCom, Xybernaut, or Lucent not so much because they understand the company's financials and can objectively argue that the company is a good investment, but rather because the stock is "hot" and "is going to $20 by December.
• The Nasdaq bubble had burst in 2000, the Japanese stock market bubble had burst in the early 1990s, the Southern California real estate bubble had burst in the late 1980s, and the emerging markets stock bubble had burst in the mid 1990s.
• March 2005: Have we learned to focus on business fundamentals such as revenue growth and profitability? Probably not, because there are events that occur that do change mind-sets. Just think about Google, where shares are currently trading at $180, more than double their $85 IPO price.

Credit Cycle Theory

• Bubble borrowing against rising values of fixed assets and equity prices
• Correction collateral values fall, sell-offs to service debt

Urban Economy

The urban economy achieves general equilibrium when 3 conditions are satisfied simultaneously:

• Price of int. transmission is dropping rapidly
• Domestic Internet penetrations are increasing rapidly
• E-Content has economies of scale Advantage in being first and large

2005 Predictions

Sample from the list of surprises written by Richard Bernstein, chief U.S. strategist at Merrill Lynch.

• The 10-year Treasury note rate goes below the March 2004 low of 3.68 percent. Deflation talk returns.
• Pharmaceuticals are among 2005's best performing industries.
• The dollar is weaker than expected during the first half of 2005, but much stronger than expected during the second half.
• The Volatility index increases. The "low volatility" period ends.
• China technically has a "soft landing," but it feels really "hard".

2005 IPO, Singapore

Olam, a leading global supply chain manager of agricultural products and food ingredients. Olam manages each activity in the supply chain from origination to processing, logistics, marketing and distribution. Sourcing from over 35 countries and supplying to more than 3000 customers in over 50 destinations markets. Cocoa, coffee, Sheanuts, Cashew, Beans, Sesame, Spices, Rice, Sugar, Cotton, Wood Products.

• Prospectus

HIV

During the 1990s, the development of effective drugs transformed HIV from a death sentence to a chronic illness. Two main classes of drugs now make up the anti-HIV arsenal: reverse transcriptase and protease inhibitors, each of which blocks a different enzyme essential to the virus's ability to copy itself after infecting human blood cells.

• July 2004, 2 new classes of HIV drugs:
  Two new compounds target opposite points in the viral life cycle. Merck's compound blocks an early stage in the infection cycle - at least in a monkey model of the disease. The Panacos Pharmaceutical "maturation inhibitor" drug, on the other hand, halts the final steps in the maturation of the virus, so far also only in animal models.
• Gilead Sciences (GILD ) is still less appreciated than its better-known peers Amgen (AMGN ) and Genentech. But the year 2005 could be an impressive year for Gilead, which is in late-stage studies of a combination pill of its Viread and Emtriva antiviral drugs for HIV. ilead's combo drug could be filed with the FDA before the end of 2005, and might reach the market in 2006.
• Bio-Rad (BIO) said the Multispot HIV-1/HIV-2 Rapid Test can be used on both fresh and frozen serum and plasma samples, and produces results in about 10 minutes. OraSure Technologies Inc. (OSUR) makes a rapid saliva-based test for HIV that gives results in 20 minutes.
• Trinity Biotech PLC (TRIB) Uni-Gold Recombigen is a rapid test approved by the FDA agency for the detection of antibodies to HIV in human serum, plasma, vein and finger stick whole blood. The device produces a result within 10 minutes and is 100 percent sensitive and 99.7 percent specific.

ED | FSD Marketplace

ED: Erectile Dysfunction.
The ED marketplace is going to prove to be one of the top pharmaceutical markets.

• Viagra, Pfizer's Inc.'s (NYSE: PFE) famous blue pill, Cialis, from Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) and Icos Corp., and Levitra, made by GlaxoSmithKline (London: GSK.L) and Bayer AG (XETRA: BAYG.DE).
• Some street comments from guys who have supposedly tested them... (Sildenafil citrato | tlag30min | 4hr | blue), (Tadalfil | tlag20min | 12hr | Yellow), (Vardenafil Hcl | 4hr | headache | Orange).

In the future you will need to treat the desire component and the arousal component.
 
FSD: Female Sexual Dysfunction.
Any drugs that prove effective in treating arousal, desire or inability to achieve orgasm could garner sales of well over a $1 billion a year.

• Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is in the late stages of developing a drug to treat desire problems in women. Vivus (NasdaqNM: VVUS), is set to move into late-stage clinical trials for Alista, which could become the first treatment for female sexual arousal disorder. If all goes according to plan, Vivus expects to submit Alista to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for review in 2006.

Lifestyle Drugs

• Melanotan (manufactured by Epitan)
  A tanning drug with all the right side effects. It is implanted under the skin and released over a period of weeks. The molecule activates five different chemical systems throughout the body. It's a potent anti-inflammatory, it promotes sexual arousal (direct action in the hypothalamus) and it targets an appetite-suppression receptor popular with the makers of weight-loss drugs. Melanotan could be approved for sale by prescription in Australia this year (2004). Trials in Europe also planned to begin in 2004.

Rheumatoid Arthritis

• August 12, 2004: FDA Approves Expanded Indication For Humira and Mobic. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved an expanded indication for the rheumatoid arthritis treatment Humira, to include improvement in physical function for adult patients with moderately to severely active RA. Read the press release about Humira. The FDA also has approved the use of Mobic tablets for the management and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.
• Mobic
  Mobic is a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug which has been available to patients in the U.S. since June 2000 for the relief of the signs and symptoms of osteoarthritis.
• Humira (adalimumab)

Phyto-Medicine

• Phytopharm plc

Google - 25 July 2007

• Google Inc. current share price is 510 dollars, market cap. 158.8 billion dollars with a P/E ratio of 44.

Asia

• The Halter USX China Index
  The Index includes companies that conduct the majority of their business within the People's Republic of China, are listed on a the NYSE, Nasdaq or Amex and have a market-cap greater than $50 million based on the average closing price for the prior 40 trading days.
• TDC Hong Kong
  TDC is the global marketing arm and service hub for Hong Kong-based manufacturers, traders and service exporters
• CEPA
  Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement :: HK - China
• IE Singapore
  IE Singapore's mission is to help Singapore-based companies grow and internationalise
• Network China

International Emerging Markets

• International Trade Center
• International Trade Forum
• Investment Promotion Network

Strategic Acquisitions

October 2004: Nike's share of the U.S. athletic-shoe market is more than twice that of each of its largest rivals, Reebok International Ltd. (NYSE:RBK) and Adidas-Salomon AG (ADSG.DE). The market is mature, so Nike Inc.'s (NYSE:NKE), the world's biggest athletic shoe company, needs new brands to boost sales.

Managing Risk

• IFCI Risk Institute

Oil Price

• Year/Price sequence
  1900 : $1.20 // 1930 : $1.19 // 1941 : $1.14 // 1945 : $1.20 // 1960 (OPEC born) : $1.80 // 1970 : $1.80 // 1973 : $6 // 1980 : $37.
  When you sell oil you get dollars. Oil exporters tend to loose purchasing power if the price of oil would remain constant and the dollar would keep depreciating.
• Global oil production is about 80 milion barrels per day. In 2020 we might need a production of 120 million barrels per day (considering the growing needs of China, India and Brasil).
• Crude oil prices have doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction. Likewise, U.S. refineries are working close to capacity, yet no new refinery has been constructed since 1976. And oil tankers are fully booked, but outdated ships are being decommissioned faster than new ones are being built.
• Kenneth Deffeyes has no doubt that by 2019, the year in which Hubbert's theories indicate global oil production will drop to 90 percent of current rates, human ingenuity will have found replacement energy sources.
• International Energy Outlook 2004
• Oil prices raced to record highs above $67 a barrel (159 liter) on August 12, 2005. While higher oil prices usually weigh on stocks as they could hurt corporate profits and curb consumer spending, they boost shares of energy companies.
  A doubling of the price of oil has direct consequences. Just imagine a sailor-fishermen, he would have to sell his fishes at double price to compensate for the higher gasoline cost.
• La face cachée du pétrole
  by Eric Laurent

Worldwide Spending by Carriers on Equipment

Almost three quarters of investment in telecoms carrier level equipment is done in the US and Western Europe. These markets are characterized by very large global equipment suppliers, which dominate the market raising the market's entry barriers.

Green Buildings

• Four Times Square
  Energy Efficiency: The central cooling plant runs on natural gas. Direct fired absorption chillers and heaters use no CFCs or HCFCs. The payback time for this equipment is approximately three years. Other features include variable speed drives, VAV systems, and direct digital control and monitoring. The building also generates fuel cell and photovoltaic power. The fuel cells generate enough electricity to cover the building's base load during night time hours. Fuel cells are non-polluting, producing only hot water and CO2 as by-products. Photovoltaic panels are located in the spaces between rows of windows on the southern and eastern facades on the top 19 floors of the building. The PV installation is expected to generate 15 kWhour of power.

Forex Market

February 25, 2005 - If the U.S. economy keeps growing at a relatively fast clip compared with Europe and Japan, the resulting demand for imports would likely result in a continued widening in the trade and current account gaps this year. So the market is torn between the dollar-positive factors of rising official interest rates and strong growth on one hand and the persistent drag of the massive U.S. current account and budget deficits on the other. Japan's Finance Ministry just said it had no intention of changing its reserves, the world's largest at almost $850 billion, to buy more euros. Japan remains trapped under deflationary pressure and there is no sign of a quick price recovery (continued slides in prices of personal computers, air conditioners and other durable products as well as declines in telephone charges).

• XE.com
  Currency site with live rates.
• Yahoo Finance
  Currency Converter.
• MATAF
  Forex Trading, Technical Analysis and Currency Trends.
• OANDA
  The Currency Site.
• Tokyoahead
  Historical Currency charts.
• Realtime Forex SA
  Online market maker in Switzerland for foreign exchange.
• FutureSource, Currencies/Forex
• PHLX World Currency Options
  

CO2 Market - Carbon Trading

Carbon emissions trading is the trading of permits to emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. It is way of meeting obligations under the Kyoto Protocol to mitigate global warming. Since carbon trading took off in Europe, trading volumes and underlying asset value have grown beyond expectations. Global carbon markets were worth $64 billion (€47 billion) in 2007, up from more than $31 billion in 2006. The market saw transactions for 2.9 billion tonnes of CO2e where the EU ETS accounted for 70 per cent of the volume and over 78 per cent of the value (Source: World Bank). By any measure, carbon trading has grown impressively to establish itself as a new commodity to count on.

• Climate Exchange
  Climate Exchange Plc, owns the European Climate Exchange (ECX) and the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX).
• ECX
  European Climate Exchange
• CCX
  Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)

Weather Market

• Weatherbill
  Online weather risk management service. WeatherBill is combining an ecommerce site with a complicated weather forecasting algorithm to sell weather insurance policies to individuals and businesses. WeatherBill is perfect for small and medium sized businesses who’s businesses are affected by the weather. If a golf course wants to be paid $1,000 per rainy day, WeatherBill will create a policy on the fly for them. The company was founded by former Googler David Friedberg.

Market Pulse

• Swiss Market Pulse

Volatility

• CBOE, Chicago Board Options Exchange
  The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices. VIX futures will trade under the symbol VX, and they will track the level of the Jumbo CBOE Volatility Index (VXB), which is 10 times the value of VIX. The contract size is 100 times the value of VXB. For example, a contract will cost $16,500 if the VIX is 16.5. The last trading day is the Tuesday prior to the third Friday of the month.
• CME Group E-mini S&P 500 Options
• FutureSource, Futures and Commodities Charts

Metals

• Live Gold Prices
  Free prices and quotes on gold, silver, platinum and stocks. Live Gold Prices also offers expert commentary, live news and interactive charts.
• Gold News Weekly
  Focus on live, up to date news.
• Gold Charts
• Metal Charts and Forecasts: Nickel 5 years
• Stainless Steel News and Nickel Prices
• Nickel Charts and Stainless Steel Graphs - Supply Demand and Prices

Lending and Borrowing Exchange

• Zopa
  Cut out the banks and get the best rates (UK only)

Growth Funds

• IT Funds
  by IT Asset Management
• Vitruvius
  Vitruvius Sicav > Vitruvius emerging markets (USD), Vitruvius Europe (EUR), Vitruvius Japan (Yen)
• Marketocracy
  Marketocracy Data Services is a research company whose mission is to find the best investors in the world and then track, analyze, and evaluate their trading activity.

21st Century Communication Networks

• Huawei
  Cisco faces its fiercest battle for supremacy in China. Its 57 percent market share in routers and switches is under serious attack from Huawei, which has 20.9 percent of that pie. Huawei sales have grown 52 percent and 56 percent in the past two years, and at USD 5 billion in revenues the company is nearly 25 percent the size of Cisco.

Hedge Funds

• Quadriga
  The future of investing
• The Turtle Fund

Interesting Funds

• Naissance Capital
  Naissance Healtcare Fund
  Naissance Jaipur (India) Fund

Markets Overview

• US Market Map
• NYSE Marketrac, Rich Internet Application
• Bank Leu, Swiss Market Map
• Swiss Investors Sentiment Index
• Stock Market Yellow Pages
• BLUeBULL
• Quote.com
• Germany
• USA
• UK
• Hong Kong
• Korea
• France
• Switzerland
• Italy
• CBT
• Chicago Mercantile Exchange
• Liechtensteinische Landesbank
• LLB Quotes
• WSRN.com
  Wall Street Research Network
• Internet Stock Report
• IPO monitor
• MSN MoneyCentral
• Nasdaq
• Reuters
• Bloomberg
• Stockconsultant
• Stockcharts :: Example
• The Chart Store
  Historical Charts - Financial Markets, Commodity Chart and Economics
• Barchart
  free information, including Momentum, What's Hot, Signals, Sectors, Projections and Opinions
• CJ Charts
  Sentiment bull vs. bears
• Stock Market Yellow Pages
  search for public companies by their description
• Medved QuoteTracker
  a great software tool
• Stockscores
  providing scored ratings on over 20,000 stocks
• Nasdaq Short Interest
• 10k Wizard
• Stock Cycles and Secular Market Trends

Independent Thinkers

• Bubblegeneration
  The strategy and economics of innovation.
• The China Stock Blog
• Cool Head Investor
• JDMBA2b
  A very interesting blog with comments and investment opinions from a bright JD/MBA student, with a passion for law, finance and Asian markets.
• theedgedaily.com
  Timely, independent, original and reliable news and analyses on business and investment.

Long Term Investments

• Broadcom (BRCM), SanDisk (SNDK), Marvell (MRVL), Seagate (STX), Intel (INTC), Dell (DELL) and Sociedad Quimica (SQM > being the only large supplier of lithium).

Financial Services

• Global Finance Magazine
  World's Best Derivatives Providers
• Global Finance Magazine
  Best Investment Banks 2004
• Raymond James
  Raymond James Financial (NYSE-RJF) is a Florida-based diversified holding company providing financial services to individuals, corporations and municipalities through its subsidiary companies. Its three wholly owned broker/dealers, Raymond James & Associates, Raymond James Financial Services and Raymond James Ltd. have more than 5,000 financial advisors serving 1.3 million accounts in 2,100 locations throughout the United States, Canada and overseas. In addition, total client assets are currently over $136 billion, of which more than $25 billion are managed by the firm’s asset management subsidiaries.
• Leu Research
  Derivative Instruments
• Credit Suisse
  Structured Investments
• Bank Vontobel
  Derinet
• Julius Baer
  Structured Investments
• Credit Suisse emagazine
• Moody's Investors Service
• Knobias.com
  a lot of information and useful news
• Russel
• WhisperNumber.com
• VentureWire
• Soundview
• Thomson I-Watch
• CBS Marketwatch
• Vector2000 MarketMeter
• Speed Research
• Internaxx
• Saxobank
• Quotetracker
• Infotec
• Stockcharts
• Hoovers
• Financial Sense
• Storm Watch by Financial Sense
• ChangeWave
• NewsEdge
• Commcept
• Rcf
• Ubitrade
  Advanced solutions for financial players to manage their capital activities
• INVESTools
  Investor Education
• Pechala's Reports

Venture Capital

Between 1980 to 2000: 1720 Technology IPOs.
Only 5% of all these technology companies created 92% of total shareholder value appreciation (2001).
 
General rule: VC look for 150% ROI in 5 years

• Lucid Ventures
  Strategic development of visionary ideas
• Bessemer Venture Partners
  100 years of history, tradition and innovation.
• VantagePoint Venture Partners
  Focused Ambition.
• NeuroVentures Capital LLC
  Venture capital firm that invests in emerging biopharmaceutical and medical technology companies that are developing novel therapies to address the tremendous unmet medical needs in Central Nervous System (CNS) diseases and disorders.
• 3i
  From start-ups to buy-outs and buy-ins
• Endeavour - Venture Capital
  Endeavour invests in spin-offs, seed and early stage companies based in Europe with a preference for Switzerland, France, United Kingdom and Germany
• Armada Venture Group
• Innovacom
• Index Ventures
• Highland Capital Partners
• BrainsToVentures AG
  b-to-v - where brains meet ventures
• Earlybird
  Earlybird Venture Capital GmbH & Co. KG
• Atila Ventures
  Atila Ventures was founded in 1999 with the goal of providing capital, operating and other value adding resources to entrepreneurs in Europe.
• PolyTechnos
  PolyTechnos Venture-Partners is an independent European venture capital firm focusing on early to expansion stage, technology and life science investments predominantly in German-speaking Europe. PolyTechnos, located in Munich, Germany, was founded in 1998 and currently advises funds totaling approximately EUR 200 million.
• Auriga Partners
  Auriga Partners is an independent venture capital firm. Based in Paris, it invests in information technologies and life sciences, in innovative high potential ventures, in seed or early development stages, in Europe, North America and Israel. Auriga Partners manages three funds for a total of more than EUR 180 million.
• Venture Incubator
  Venture Incubator is a CHF 100 million fund dedicated to financing and supporting startups in Switzerland and neighbouring regions. It has invested in 12 promising companies in life sciences, medical technologies, software, material sciences and semiconductors.
• Benchmark capital
• Walden International
• Longacre
• Wingate capital SA
• Hpi
• Battery ventures
• Friedli Corporate Finance New Venturetec InVentureLTD
• The Carlyle Group
• Gtcr
• IVS A/S
• 3kdigital
• Accenture Technology Ventures
• Gamechange
• Ventureone
• Venture Partners
  Independent Swiss Technology Fund Manager
• Venture Economics
• VentureReporter.net
• Growthink | Research
  A venture capital research firm based in Los Angeles. They publish quarterly and annual directories of companies that have successfully raised venture capital investments.
• National VC Association
• Money Tree Survey
• VentureWire
  premier source of news, networking, and information about private technology companies, VC firms, and the people that manage and finance them
• PWC MoneyTree
  VC investments in 16 industry segments since 1995
• Veronis Suhler Stevenson
• VC Buzz
  venture capital information
• vFinance
  Find Capital. Invest Capital

Business Angels

"Few business plan to fail, but many of those that flop, failed to plan"

• European Business Angels Network
• Business Angels Club Switzerland
• b-to-v

Class Action Law Firms

• Milberg Weiss
• Schiffrin & Barroway
• Cauley Geller

 

 

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